News travels the internet faster than the speed of facts.
Published on Apr 16, 2008 at 3:23 pm.
4 Comments.
Filed under asteroids, public science.
A little over a year ago, I wrote about the asteroid 99942 Apophis. For those of you who don’t check out that link, Apophis is an asteroid that will be passing very close to Earth in coming years, particularly in 2029 and in 2036. The asteroid will be so close that it will be closer to Earth than our geosynchronous satellites. With a diameter of about 270 meters, if it hit, then it would be catastrophic. Shortly after discovery, astronomers computed its future orbit and found that the uncertainly in orbit was great enough that some of the possible future orbits intersected Earth. Later observations, though, narrowed down the uncertainly to the point that now we are quite confident that the likelihood of an impact is extremely small. Small enough, in fact, to say that we are safe.
But, in a widely circulated news story yesterday (here, here, here, here, and many other places) a German schoolboy working on a science project found that NASA got the numbers wrong and that there is really a 1 in 450 chance of the asteroid striking Earth. According to the report, NASA and ESA both agreed that the student was correct in his calculations. The story was originally published in Germany in print and on television, but it was quickly picked up by other news agencies and astronomy blogs and news sites online. With the internet, the news can travel very quickly. Some news organizations simply put the story out there as it came off of the wire, and others tried to check up on the story a bit, and since it was reported so widely, then it was assumed to be correct. The only thing, though, is that the initial story was wrong.
The German schoolboy was the one who messed up on the calculations. But, the reporter(s) who originally publicized the news didn’t properly check up on the facts. The science fair judges apparently took the boy’s calculations as correct, without verifying them. That was good enough for the reporters. As for NASA and ESA, neither were, in fact, apparently contacted. At least, the people and offices that actually do the calculations were not contacted. I can’t say as to whether or not anyone actually called them and spoke to the operator who answered the phone, but they apparently didn’t talk to the scientists. A German professor who was cited in the news report was apparently taken by surprise, since he had not been contacted about the asteroid calculations by either the student or the news reporters.
I have commented several times on this site about what looks like the lack of professionalism in the news media at times. Hey, even most of the reporters who reported the news of the asteroid discovery by a couple of our students did not appear to check on the facts beyond me. They spoke to the students, and checked what they said with me, but I saw no evidence that the checking went any further. Now, I do have a reputation for accuracy in terms of astronomy information in the Dallas and Fort Worth area, but still I’d have expected them to talk to other astronomers or the Minor Planet Center or somebody. At least, they got that story essentially correct. But, the reporters are under pressure to come up with stories as fast as they can. And, they are under pressure to beat any other news outlet to that story. They want to be the first newspaper, first online news source, or first television or radio station to publicize the news. Now, I can relate to that. When I hear of something, I’d like to post about it here first, before someone else gets all the credit for reporting it. But, I tend to restrain myself most of the time. I like to check up on the story. The original reporters failed to do this sufficiently.
But, remember that this news story quickly spread throughout the world. People were reporting it all over the world in print, on television, and on internet sites. Some very well respected news outlets even reported the story. Now, you can sort of understand why. After all, this story had already been reported by what was supposed to be a reputable source of news. So, others would presume that the story had already been vetted and verified. It was news. Hey, if AFP puts it out there to the world, then it must be OK, right? So, everyone else thought that the news had been checked out, and many of them failed to verify it, too. Eventually, though, some people began checking, and the facts didn’t add up. The schoolboy didn’t correct NASA’s computations after all. Oops.
Now, let us let this be a lesson to us all. Don’t believe everything that you hear, particularly if it is a big claim from one place. Carl Sagan said that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. If someone, particularly someone who is not an expert in the field, claims to have found that calculations done by profession scientists, verified by other scientists, and submitted and accepted in the peer review process are wrong, then you need some pretty good evidence to back up the statement. Not asking around to other experts in the field would be a mistake.
I am not pointing fingers at the people who reported the story second had (attributing the source of the news, of course). They had reason to believe that the story was valid and had been checked out. After all, the story published by a supposedly reliable source of news said that NASA and ESA had both been contacted and agreed with the findings. So, how would everyone else know that had not actually happened? But, my congratulations to those who actually did check up on the story. And, for the rest of us, let us learn by example. Question rather than just accepting as true something that makes bold claims. If it holds up to the questioning, then great. It is more important to report something correctly than to report something first.
-Astroprof
Vossinakis Andreas on April 16, 2008 at 3:52 pm: 1
As usual, media channels will have a feast on that issue. The bad thing is that after the truth is exposed, no one is going to comment on that and set the record straight.
Anyone who doesn’t get carried away will wonder “how on earth, a bus sized satellite can affect a mountain sized asteroid???”
Bro John on April 17, 2008 at 7:24 am: 2
There’s a 1 in 450,000 (NOT 450) chance of me believeing what’s EVER said by the media anyway. But thanks for the verification.
Ian Kemmish on April 17, 2008 at 11:14 am: 3
Let’s hope the schoolboy is smart enough to quickly recast his project as an research into groupthink….
PSP Internet on May 7, 2008 at 12:55 pm: 4
Awesome post. Thanks for the info, very interesting stuff