The Latest Cycle 24 Prediction
Published on May 8, 2009 at 4:45 pm.
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The sunspot minimum following the 23rd sunspot cycle has been unusually deep and long. There have been signs that Sunspot Cycle 24 is getting underway. But, there have been signs of that for a little over a year, now, and so far it hasn’t gotten going very much, yet. Now, there are two more active regions that have been spotted by NASA’s STEREO-B spacecraft. These seem to belong to the new sunspot cycle. Still, there have been false starts to this new cycle before.
Now, the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel, a team of astrophysicists, has made a new prediction about the upcoming solar cycle. The peak is expected to be about May 2013, four years from now and about two years later than the earliest forcasts. This peak is expected to be a rather weak one, with an average sunspot number of 90. This is the consensus of the panel. It should be noted that the panel did not reach a unanimous agreement, but most are in support of this consensus prediction. We are much better today than we used to be in forecasting solar activity, but it still is not entirely certain.
So, we’ll just have to wait and see if this new prediction is any better than the old one, and if the Sun really is about to start pickup up in activity. This has been one of the deepest solar minima in a century. If the forecast holds, the next solar cycle should be one of the weakest in about a century, too.
Increased solar activity comes with a cost, though. It means that there will be an increased threat of solar storms and geomagnetic disturbances. Those can interrupt satellite communications and disrupt electrical transmissions, not to mention degradation of pipelines. So, there are economic costs to an active Sun. Also, solar storms can be a threat to spacecraft and astronauts. Thus, there is good reason to keep an eye on the Sun and to watch solar activity.
-Astroprof
Images courtesy NASA, STEREO and NOAA/SWPC
