Duck, it’s 2006 QM111!
Published on Sep 24, 2006 at 1:45 pm.
5 Comments.
Filed under Earth, asteroids.
A week ago, I posted about a crater located here in Texas just west of Odessa. That crater was caused by something running into Earth. You can work out the mathematics of such an impact, and you find that the impacting body may have exploded with the equivalent force of 100 to 200 megatons of TNT. To put this into perspective, this is nearly 50 times larger than a “typical” hydrogen bomb. The largest thermonuclear device every tested was the Tsar Bomba, detonated by the Soviet Union on October 30, 1961, which had a yield of 50 megatons. But fortunately, these things don’t hit all that often. But, would we see one coming?
Case in point: 2006 QM111. This asteroid was discovered August 31, 2006. About 8 hours later is passed Earth, at less than half of the distance between the Earth and the Moon. That is considered a very near miss. This body was estimated to be about 13 meters across, or slightly larger than the object that struck near Odessa. It was discoverer eight hours before closest approach, but it wasn’t until about two or three hours before it passed that it’s path was actually determined. What if it had been headed towards a major city? As last year’s evacuations before hurricanes here in the US has shown, it would be impossible to evacuate a major city in even 8 hours, much less two or three — even if you could catch the right people who make that sort of decision. At least with a hurricane, you have days to prepare.
But even bigger dangers await. Near Tucson, Arizona, we have Barringer Crater. NASA’s Astronomy Picture of the Day posted an image of Barringer Crater a while back taken by D. Roddy. I am copying the photo here:
This crater is nearly 3/4 of a mile across and 600 feet deep. The blast from this impact is nearly unimaginable. The blast itself would have killed any creature within a hundred miles, and nearly all of North America was showered with debris. Hurricane force winds would have blasted Arizona and much of neighboring states. This impact was 49,000 years ago. But, on September 5, 2006, the asteroid 2006 QV89, almost the same size as the body that made the Barringer Crater, passed less than two million miles from Earth. That, too is a near miss in astronomical terms, and this body has been listed as a future impact risk. The orbit is too poorly defined at the moment to say just how big of a risk or when the most dangerous pass will take place. 2006 QV89 was only first observed August 29, 2006. At least there were several days advance warning, but that still wouldn’t do us any good if it were found to be heading right at us. That might be time to evacuate a city, if everything went perfectly smoothly. But it would be hopeless to evacuate an entire state or nation that quickly.
But that isn’t all, midway between the size of thest two bodies was 2006 SC, discovered September 16. After serveral observations, it was determined that it had been discovered after it had already passed Earth at only about twice the distance to the Moon three days earlier. Oops. Missed one. Actually, we find a lot that way.
At nearly 1.5 times the size of the object that made the Barringer Crater, 2006 SG7, discovered just under a week ago, will pass Earth at a comfortable 7 million miles on my birthday, October 10. This object shouldn’t pass this close again in a long time, and isn’t listed as a major threat. But, 2006 RJ1, was found early in September, and calculating its orbit backward, we find that it passed us at 15 million miles back in 2004, and no one noticed it. I know that 15 million miles sounds like a long distance, but in the scale of the solar system, it is nothing. 2006 RJ1’s orbit will continue to bring it by Earth now and then, and it is listed as a potential risk. Oh, and it is nearly 3 times the size of what hit in Arizona.
I could keep going, but you get the picture. It’s a dangerous Solar System out there. Astronomers don’t talk about “if” one of these things will hit Earth, but rather “when” one will hit. So, with that comfortable thought, you can pull the sheets up over your head tonight when you go to bed.
-Astroprof
skeptigal on October 11, 2006 at 4:25 am: 1
And not a headline did I notice. Kind of a two edged sword: without drumming up a bit of fear factoring no funding for NEO searches increases, yet too much drumming and the end of the world as we know it crowd gets going.
Astroprof on October 11, 2006 at 10:36 am: 2
Yeah, I know. The media, despite the appearance of always having current news, needs lots of warmup time for science topics. They frequently report on things months (or years) old as if it were something just announced. Now, if something were found six months ahead of time, then the media might get around to covering it on the day of closest approach (but as if it were only just that day found).
Star King on October 22, 2006 at 7:31 pm: 3
Unfortunate fact of the matter is, the media RARELY get scientific news exactly right, even the simple stuff. Worse than that, they rarely get ANY of the subjects I am personally knowledgeable about exactly right, leading me to suspect they rarely get ANYTHING exactly right. Perhaps journalists should be required to have some actual knowlege about the topics they cover. Perhaps the profit motive is getting a bit too much in the way . . . mainstream media are beginning to look an AWFUL lot like the tabloids these days.
Dastradombass on October 26, 2006 at 10:47 am: 4
We’re all doomed! Doomed I tell ya! DOOMED!
All hope is lost!
Astroprof’s Page » 2007 EH: Another near miss on March 28, 2007 at 7:05 am: 5
[…] Six months ago, I wrote about 2006 QM111, which passed close to Earth. It was discovered just hours before closest approach. It then came within half the Moon’s distance from Earth. At the time, I pointed out that such an event is not really all that rare. There are a LOT of bodies flying around the Solar System that are quite small, and we don’t see them until they are upon us. Well, the same sort of thing happened just a little over two weeks ago. This time, the object was called 2007 EH. […]