Leonid Update
Published on Nov 20, 2006 at 2:34 pm.
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Filed under meteors, skywatching.
Well, the data seems to be coming in. The Leonids were pretty pitiful this weekend. Preliminary data from the International Meteor Organization suggests that the peak was about when expected, but at best less than half of the expected strength. But, after the peak, the activity just dropped off to next to nothing. We saw a few this weekend, but fewer than I think that I’ve ever seen for a Leonid shower, and normally it is pretty puny to start with! Typically, you get a good dozen meteors per hour, but I wasn’t even seeing half that. Other observers report the same.Â
So, what happened? Well, as I said earlier, predicting these things is VERY tough work. They don’t always go like you expect. Besides, meteor predictions are still in their infancy. That we are able to predict anything at all is impressive. What made these predictions particularly tough was that the meteoroid stream that we were to have encountered was shed by comet Tempel-Tuttle in 1833. It was over three decades later before the comet was even discovered. So, nobody was watching to see how active the comet may have been in 1833. It might simply not have been very active.  It is hard to say.
Some observers in the prime target area go to see some bright bolides. I saw a couple good ones myself, but the multitudes of small meteors that we were all hoping for didn’t pan out.  But, I did tell people at my public talk Saturday night that I didn’t really expect a lot. I did, though, expect more than I saw.Â
This wasn’t a total bust, though. Because in science, null measurements are still data. Not seeing meteors tells us something about comets and meteor showers. It isn’t as exciting as seeing meteors, but it is still data. For amateur astronomers, it is disappointing. For professional meteor astronomers, it is something else to study.
-Astroprof Â
